The real estate sector in Spain has been the subject of debate in the first quarter of 2023 due to the 2.9% increase in used housing prices in that period, according to a report by idealista. The m2 is now priced at €1,943, representing an increase of 7.3% in the last twelve months. Experts have tried to analyze how the real estate market will evolve in the coming months and have reached several conclusions.

The housing market is a balance between housing prices and access to credit. The recent changes in interest rates pushed by the ECB to reduce inflation to 2% in the medium term will affect the fluctuation of house prices in the second quarter. Francisco Sierra, Casavo's managing director for Spain, predicts a significant decrease in house prices due to this change, but also warns that mortgage lending will become more expensive, which may be a factor to consider for potential buyers and investors.

Iñaki Unsain, Personal Shopper Inmobiliario (PSI) of reference in Spain, believes that we may see a small decrease in the prices of high value homes, while small value investment homes will not go down at all, but may even go up due to the increase in mortgage costs.

Benito Cerezo, Director of Formation at Grocasa Hipotecas, states that it is possible that demand will regulate somewhat downward this 2023 and that perhaps housing will adjust somewhat in price, but not significantly, since despite the rise in the interest rate demand continues to remain strong due mainly to the stability of employment.

The annual variation rate of the CPI in Spain in March 2023 was 3.3%, 2.7 points lower than the previous month, according to the INE. This has led experts to analyze how it influences housing prices. Unsain believes that although there is a drop, it is not an excessively significant figure, since it is a year-on-year variation that is compared contextually with the month in which the invasion of Ukraine took place and energy costs soared. Casavo points out that the gradual reduction in inflation will lead to a reduction in prices in the medium term.

As for the types of homes and places where prices could drop the most, Grocasa believes that the homes that would suffer the most are those in areas with low demand, such as second homes. Francisco Sierra, from Casavo, considers it likely that prices will suffer a significant reduction in inland provinces, such as Castilla La Mancha or Castilla y León, while more popular places such as the Levante or the Costa del Sol will not be affected to a great extent. The nerve centers of large cities such as Madrid and Barcelona will take time to experience this general decline in the cost of housing.

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