Although the real estate market does not take a break in summer, vacations often cause some buyers to postpone their decisions until September to finalize their searches and negotiate property prices. What is the outlook for home sales and purchases after this summer season?

Fernando Tisner, City Manager for Madrid at Casavo, points out that the last quarter of the year has traditionally been a favorable period for buying and selling. Despite the recent increase in interest rates announced by the European Central Bank, "we see no reason why this year should be any different".

On the other hand, Rebeca Pérez, CEO and founder of Inviertis, anticipates an increase in the number of property sales and purchases after the summer, especially those destined for investment. "However, purchases for primary residence could continue to be affected by the level of indebtedness faced by families".

Jesús Duque, vice president of Alfa Inmobiliaria, expects the real estate market to experience a slight moderation in sales and purchases after the summer. Several closely interrelated economic factors could exert a moderate influence on the real estate market during this period.

"One of the key factors that could have an impact is inflation and its effect on the family economy. With rising prices for essential goods and services, families will see their purchasing power diminish, which could lead many of them to postpone their home buying decisions."

Another relevant aspect is the implementation of more restrictive criteria by banks when granting financing. This situation restricts access to housing for certain buyers, especially those with lower incomes or who do not meet the new solvency standards established by banking institutions.

Casavo points out that autumn generally marks the time when individuals, after the summer lull, resume their buying or selling decisions. In addition, banks tend to offer more attractive conditions as the end of the year approaches, especially in those entities seeking to expand their participation in the mortgage market.

"While we expect a decrease compared to the previous year, following the general trend of previous months, it is important to emphasize that we are coming off a historic 2022. This will result in further stabilization of the real estate market and transactions."

Regional Perspectives for Sales and Purchases

At Inviertis, we anticipate an increase in transactions in areas that are more sensitive to supply growth and where yields are higher. "At the moment, we see high demand in the eastern and southern coastal areas."

Fernando Tisner is betting on prime areas in major cities, with special emphasis on Madrid and Barcelona. These areas have shown greater resilience in the real estate market during 2023, and the acquisition of these properties as investments has withstood the increase in interest rates.

"Likewise, in a context of credit restrictions, properties located in prime areas will be favored by banks when granting mortgage loans," comments the expert.

It is also mentioned that rents remain at historically high levels in many neighborhoods, which increases the interest of individuals in acquiring properties.

Jesús Duque, from Alfa Inmobiliaria, states that sales and purchases are concentrated in large capitals and in homes for regular, non-holiday use. "This is due, in part, to the fact that these cities are centers of business and commercial activity. The presence of companies, offices and business centers attracts many professionals looking to live close to their place of work to reduce commuting and improve their quality of life".

In addition, cities offer large and diverse labor markets, attracting people from diverse regions and backgrounds, which increases the demand for both rental and rental housing.

Is Fall a Good Time to Buy a Home?

Experts agree that it is. Rebeca Pérez mentions that September and October are favorable months to buy, since supply increases and demand has not yet reached its year-end peak.

Casavo's expert highlights that after the summer, real estate activity is fully reactivated. "There is greater availability of properties as many owners opt to put their properties for sale or resume the search for buyers. In addition, as we mentioned previously, banking entities seeking to expand their share in the mortgage market will offer more attractive conditions for those who wish to acquire a property."

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